Wednesday – Significant Risk of Severe Weather

1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook0700 UTC Day 2 Outlook1630 UTC Day 3 Outlook These are the Severe Weather Outlook maps for today (Tue.), tomorrow ( Wed.) and the next day (Thu.). While there is a chance of an isolated shower or t-shower today, most areas will stay dry.  It’ll be a warm and humid day with highs in the upper 80s.

We’re focused on tomorrow (Weds.). The Southern Great Lakes are in the (yellow) Slight Risk Area. SPC says: “central/southern Lower MI to far southern WI and northern IL presently appear to be the zone of most robust convective development…Severe wind, and initially severe hail, will be the primary concerns with this activity. During incipient stages of convective development, some tornado potential (albeit limited) could exist with supercell structures across southern Lower MI.  I would not be surprised to see the Slight Risk Area expanded and perhaps even upgraded to an Enhanced Risk.

OK – this is technical – but this is from the local Grand Rapids National Weather Service 3:30 am Forecast Discussion:  “WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE A TIME FOR ALL OF US TO WATCH THE SKY CAREFULLY. IT WOULD SEEM TO THIS FORECASTER THE SET UP FOR SEVERE STORMS IT THE BEST I HAVE SEEN THIS YEAR FOR THIS AREA. THERE IS JUST ABOUT ALL THE ONE WOULD TYPICALLY LOOK FOR. THE DEEP LAYER  SHEAR RISES TO NEAR 40 KNOTS NORTH OF I-96 LATE IN THE DAY, THERE IS A 35 TO 45 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN IN THE AFTERNOON, WE GET INTO THE JET ENTRANCE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. SINCE THERE IS A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE SURFACE LOW WE HAVE GOOD SURFACE CONVERGENCE. THERE IS GOOD 700 TO 300 MB QVECT CONVERGENCE, THE SOUNDING SHOW A “LOADED GUN” TYPE SOUNDING DURING THE AFTERNOON TOO. IF THAT IS NOT ENOUGH THE THE SPC SREF CALIBRATED PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS REACHES A 13 LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY, THAIS THE HIGHEST NUMBER I HAVE SEEN IN MICHIGAN THIS ENTIRE YEAR. THE SREF CONDITIONAL SEVERE GETS TO 40 PERCENT (WHICH FOR MICHIGAN IS HIGH). THE CRAVENBROOKS SIGNIFICANT SEVERE GETS TO 40,000, WHICH IS THE HIGHEST I HAVE SEEN ALL YEAR TOO. THE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETER REACHES “2” NEAR ROUTE 10 BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. I COULD GO ON BUT BY NOW YOU SHOULD GET THE PICTURE. I SEE THE THREAT OF VERY HEAVY RAIN, VERY STRONG AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WED. AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.”

I hope newer model runs ease back on this…but as of now….stay up with the latest forecasts – let you friends know about the severe threat Weds. PM.

Looks like everyone who lost electricity in the Thurs. night storm is back up and running. Consumers Energy reports just 41 customers statewide without power as of 5 am.

I won’t be here in Michigan. Wednesday is my mother’s 98th birthday, and I’ll be celebrating with her and the rest of the family in Tennessee. I will be checking in on rare occasion, but mom takes priority here. In any case, stay up with the latest forecasts during the day Wednesday.
Central Great Lakes sector loop

Click for latest Composite Reflectivity radar image from the Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI radar and current weather warnings Regional and local radar maps should update automatically.

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