Warm End to August

This is the 8-14 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for August 22-28.  That letter “A” over Lower Michigan means there is an excellent chance of above average temperatures. I’ll go a step further and tell you I think temps. will not only be a little warmer than average for the last 2 weeks of August, but probably for the months of September and October.  Global temperatures have cooled a bit since the satellite-era (since 1979) global record high temperature was reached in March 2016, but still remain above the 1981-2010 average.  The peaks you see at the link in 1998 and 2016 are years with strong El Ninos (warm water in the Equatorial Pacific).

  This is the 8-14 day rainfall forecast from CPC.  Rainfall in the warm season is quite variable and can change greatly from one county to the next.  This map tries to pin down larger areas that are in general likely to see above or below average rainfall.  The Great Lakes are (in green) have a higher than average chance of above normal rainfall.

  Look how calm Lake Michigan is this evening at Muskegon.  The average wind speed today at the Muskegon GLERL weather station has been just 4 mph.  At Holland (Regional Airport) the average wind speed from midnight to 5 pm was just 2.3 mph.  Grand Rapids has now had 7 consecutive days with high temps. from 80° to 83°.  The first two weeks of August were 2.1° cooler than average.  We should be able to erase that deficit with the warmer pattern shaping up for the rest of the month.

  I believe this ship is the Cuyahoga – unloading at Alpena this evening.  Alpena had 1.24″ of rain this afternoon.  3/4″ hail fell at Lake St. Helen and 1/4″ hail was reported at Ocqueoc.

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