Chance of a T-Storm on Saturday

This is the Severe Weather Outlook Map from the Storm Prediction Center.  West Michigan is in the (light green) General T-Storm Outlook.  There is a Slight Risk for a severe storm Kansas to the Mississippi River and the Marginal Risk comes east to Lake Michigan.  SPC says:  “…marginally severe storms will be possible in northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin where instability is forecast to be weaker than in areas to the southwest.”

Some sun at 1 pm north of Ludington…but most of us stay mostly cloudy this PM and tonight.  We may go partly sunny tomorrow (Fri.), but more clouds than not thru Sunday.  The Fri. AM run of the GFS model gives G.R. 0.86″ from late Fri. night to Sun. AM and Ludington 1.87″.

  This is the Day 1 to 3 Rainfall Forecast Map from the Weather Prediction Center.  Look at the heavy rain from Iowa to Michigan, with 2-3″ expected north and west of G.R.  If this happens there”” could be some minor local flooding.  River levels are at or above average levels.

Here’s the GRR NWS graphic on the weekend rain.

The GFS model run from this AM gives G.R. an 8 am Sun. AM temp. of 54.  There is a chance of a light shower or sprinkle…but the heaviest rain will be over, according to that model.  The model has a west wind at 36 mph!  That looks overdone…but winds could certainly be an issue.

Heavy rain and strong winds from the remnants of Hurricane Ophelia will hit Ireland and the U.K. (click on the image to enlarge).

Winds in the CA wildfire area north of San Francisco are a little lighter than expected. At 1 pm, the wind was 5 mph at Napa CA and 8 mph at Santa Rosa CA. The Northern California Geographic Area Coordination Center reports these resources fighting the fire today (Thu.): 99 crew teams, 4,576 personnel, 425 fire engines and 50 helicopters.  3,500 structures have been destroyed by the fires.

A strong tropical storm or low-end hurricane (called a typhoon in the W. Pacific) will move into S. China and N. Vietnam.  Recent flooding has resulted in 43 deaths in northern Vietnam.

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