A FLOOD WARNING is in effect for these counties through Tuesday evening:  Kent, Allegan, Ottawa, Muskegon and Oceana.   FLOOD WATCH will be in effect thru Tuesday evening for much of Lower Michigan north up into the eastern U.P.  The cool front passes thru, then a low pressure system rides up the front producing a north-south band of heavy rain (2-5″), that could produce some local flooding.  There are STORM WARNINGS for Lake Michigan for winds to 50 knots (58 mph) and waves to 16 feet.  Storm Warnings are the next step up above Gale Warnings and below Hurricane Warnings.

  There is a High Wind Warning for the Lake Superior Shore for waves as high as 25 feet and wind gusts over the open water to 70 mph.  This situation is more serious because the water level of Lake Superior is quite high right now.  As of last Thursday, the water level of Lake Superior was 10″ above the average October level and the water level of Lake Michigan/Huron was 17″ above the average October level.

Click for latest Storm Total Precipitation radar loop from the Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI radar and current weather warnings This is Storm Total Ranfall.  The heaviest rain so far has been north and west of Grand Rapids.

Rainfall through 2 pm:  Muskegon 2.75, Hart 2.08″, Elbridge (Oceana Co.) 2.10″, Shelby 1.91″, Big Rapids 1.82:, Sparta 1.54″, W. Olive 1.57″, Holland 1.61″, Grand Rapids (airport) 1.26″.  Here’s rainfall totals from N. Lower Michigan.

Many rivers are still a little above average flow for this time of year. This is a Lake Michigan picture at the Muskegon Channel this PM – can you see the ship in the distance top center of the picture?

  This is the GRR NWS graphic on the heavy rain for Monday and Monday night.  Heaviest rain along and east of US 131.  Through Sunday, Grand Rapids is 7.8 deg. warmer than average for October.  We have not had a single day this month when the average temp. for the day has been cooler than normal.  11 of the first 22 days of Oct. reached 70 degrees and four of those days made it to 80 or better.

Model Update:  The GFS model gives G.R. a 100% chance of measurable rain today (Mon.) and a 100% chance of rain tonight (Monday night).  It also gives G.R. 2.09″ of rain today and 4.15″ before the end of October.  The GFXS gives G.R. a rain/snow mix late Sat. into early Sun and it gives G.R. highs only in the 40s for Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday. The latest first freeze in G.R. was Nov. 14, 1918.  Check out the GRR NWS Forecast Discussion.  The European model gives G.R. 3.16″ of rain from this morning thru Weds.

Also:  Beautiful Gulf sunsetFall colors in MNBeautiful sunset on the high plains of Colorado.  Here’s Northern Hemisphere ACE Index year-to-date.  Hurricane activity way up in the North Atlantic this year…but down in all other oceans…Northern Hemisphere is right at average (100%).  +3″ diameter hail in Oklahoma Sat. nightSnowing at sea level in Japan in October.  Typhoon Lan producing gusts over 50 mph in Tokyo.  Check out this REALLY close call on a lightning strike.

Some of you have heard of the Nielsen ratings for TV – Arthur Nielsen went to my high school BTW and knew my mother.  Anyway, Nielsen has updated their television market sizes.  Grand Rapids moved up one from 44th in the country to 43rd.  Traverse City/Cadillac is also up one from 119 to 118.  Among big cities, San Francisco dropped two…from 6th to 8th (expensive to live there) and Atlanta moved past Boston from 10th to 9th.

Central Great Lakes sector loop

Click for latest Composite Reflectivity radar image from the Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI radar and current weather warnings Regional and local radar maps should update automatically.  The heavier rain in yellow in Illinois will be up over Michigan tomorrow.

Links: Grand Rapids radar, Northern Michigan radar, Milwaukee radar, Northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar, Detroit radar, Regional radar, the Updated GRR NWS Short Term Discussion. College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map, the National warning/watch/advisory map, and a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s recent storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph. Cool U.S. satellite loop. Here’s the 84-Hour snow forecast from the NAM model and the 120-hour snow forecast from the GFS model and Michigan ski conditions. Here’s a link to ReportIt – where you can send us your pictures, video and storm reports.

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