I stayed up until 4 am for the SPC Day 3 Severe Weather Outlook, so I could get this on the blog and on my facebook pages and twitter (@bsteffen). SPC has an Enhanced Outlook for much of Illinois, Indiana and W. Ohio. The Slight Risk Area comes up to Grand Rapids to Port Huron and the Marginal Outlook is up to Pentwater to Saginaw Bay. SPC says: “Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes may occur across parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Midwest, and Ohio Valley regions on Sunday…Scattered large hail, some possibly significant, may occur with these supercells, particularly across parts of central/eastern IL into western IN where buoyancy should be greatest. Damaging downdraft winds will also be a threat with any supercell as low-level lapse rates steepen with diurnal heating. The tornado potential should be maximized along the surface warm front and east of the low where low-level winds will be locally backed to a more southerly direction (versus generally southwesterly elsewhere).”
Model data: Fri. AM run of the GFS model gives G.R. an 84% chance of measurable rain Sat. PM and a 93% chance of measurable rain on Sunday.
We’ll have a dry day today. The sun is lower in the sky in late fall and winter…it’s harder to mix out the low clouds, but I’m hoping that will happen and we can get some sunshine around here. G.R. has had measurable rain 6 days in a row and at least a trace of rain on 11 of the last 12 days. As I type this (3:15 am Fri.), the Grand River at G.R. has a flow of 5,750 cubic feet per second compared to an average flow of 2,210 cfs. That’s more than 2 1/2 times average flow. Showers will return on tomorrow during the middle of the day. Looks like a wet Sat. PM. Sunday we have a chance of showers and storms. Not including today…over the past week we’ve had just 2% of possible sunshine. It’ll be dry tonight for the Football Frenzy high school playoff football games.
Here’s snowcover…lots of it across much of Canada…and over 12% of the contiguous U.S. had snow on the ground yesterday, well above average for the first week of November. Snow covers the Colorado mountains. Snow in Calgary. On the other hand, Dallas set an all-time November high temperature record of 93 deg. The ozone hole smallest since 1988. Typhoon Damrey heading into Vietnam, then Cambodia. Lenticular clouds in Italy. The sun is blank (no sunspots). Fall colors at the West Virginia state capitol. Cool animal rescue story. Hudson Bay sea ice – Nov 3, freezing fast along the west coast. Churchill polar bears may leave earlier than usual. Waterspouts Fri. AM off Italy. Another snowstorm in Montana. Rain for California – snow in the mountains. Early season snowcover trend in Siberia. Fall colors in Alabama.…note – color change timing not very different in AL than MI. Fall colors in Washington D.C. Come with me to the Caribbean Sea. Snow in Washington State this AM. Snow in Minnesota. Lots of snow on the way for the mountains of the Pacific NW. Heavy snow in Montana.