Severe Threat South This PM

Central Great Lakes sector Radars here should update automatically.  This is the Sunday AM updated Severe Weather Outlook Area from the Storm Prediction Center.  SPC has over the past 36 hours, shifted the severe risk to the south.  Slight Risk now south of a line from S. Bend to south of Detroit…Marginal Risk south of a line from Benton Harbor to Port Huron.  SPC says:  “Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes, will be possible…The potential for large hail is forecast to be greatest during the late afternoon and early evening when instability will be maximized. The tornado threat is forecast to be greatest during the early evening as supercells ahead of the front interact with a strengthening low-level jet…0-3 km storm relative helicities of 300 to 400 m2/s2 and low LCL heights should support a conditional significant tornado threat with cells that remain discrete ahead of the front. As convection fills in along the front, the potential for wind damage should increase. A mixed model of convection should exist along the front. The faster moving bowing line segments will have the greatest potential to produce wind damage. The wind-damage threat should persist during the early to mid evening as an MCS becomes organized and moves southeastward across the region.”

  These 3 maps show the possibility of a tornado (map 1), wind damage (map 2) and a severe hail report (map 3) within 25 miles of a given point.  As you can see, a tornado would be most likely in the yellow area from Illinois to far W. Ohio.  Wind damage is possible from E. Missouri all the way to W. Pennsylvania.  The greatest threat is large hail (1″ or more in diameter from St. Louis to the I-75 area of W. Ohio.  Storm chasers today will concentrate along I-70 from St. Louis to Effingham IL to Terre Haute and Indianapolis IN.  Here’s the video discussion from the No. Indiana NWS.  SPC will update in the AM.  I’ll update the blog in the early afternoon when I’m back from working in the church nursery.

The G.R. NWS says:  “THE GFS AND NAM ARE COMING INTO LINE WITH THE FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTION OF ECMWF AND THE SPC HAS SHIFTED THE MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FURTHER SOUTH AGAIN. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAIN AND CONVECTIVE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA EXTENDING INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST THIS EVENING. SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE HIGHEST TOWARDS JXN AND EVEN THERE WOULD BE FOR ISOLATED HAIL OR HIGH WINDS IN A NARROW WINDOW AROUND EARLY AFTERNOON.”  Here’s the Indianapolis NWS discussion, where the bigger storms may ride this PM. 

In the meantime…Some fog around this Sunday AM – Rainfall Saturday:  1.14″ Richland, 0.83″ Charlotte, 0.77″ Battle Creek, 0.74″ Benton Harbor, 0.70″ Lansing, 0.44″ Kalamazoo, 0.35″ Grand Rapids, 0.29″ Holland, 0.12″ Muskegon, 0.05″ Big Rapids  Here’s National Lightning Tracker and local WOOD Lightning Tracker.  There’s a Flash Flood Watch for much of Northern and Central Indiana and Western Ohio.

It was a good Saturday to stay inside and watch footballMichigan St. beat Penn St. on the last play of the game 27-24.  Could Michigan St. beat Ohio State next week?  They control their own destiny!  Michigan had an easy win over Minnesota.  Huge win for Iowa.  They had never scored 40 points against Ohio St. much less the 55 points they scored Saturday.   Wisconsin spotted Indiana 10 points, then wins the rest of the game 45-7.   Notre Dame beat Wake Forest 48-37, lots of points there. Northwestern topped Nebraska   Everyone at WOOD-TV roots for #71 on Northwestern.

  The full moon was dancing in and out of the clouds Fri. evening.  This is the Hunter’s Moon, which is the full moon that follows the Harvest Moon.  AlsoDrone video of fall colorsSecurity cam. video of tornado in CreteWaterspouts off the coast of ItalyTropical Storm Danrey producing heavy rain in Vietnam and Cambodia. 19 fatalities in VietNam – due mostly to flooding.   Fall colors in VirginiaSnow in N. Dakota (no leaves on trees). Strong 6.9 earthquake near Samoa.  Heavy snow in the AlpsHeavy snow in WisconsinFall colors in SE Tennessee.  Record low temp. of -9 this AM at Great Falls MT.  Sunrise Dauphin Is.  I have walked on this pier (on an equally beautiful day).  Cloudy with a chance of a shower or drizzle at the NYC Marathon tomorrow.  Temps. mid-upper 50s.  Double rainbow Marysville MISunset Panama Beach.   About Pat SajakMoon rising over the football stadiumTornado in FranceSnow in the AlpsSnow in ScotlandDiving in fresh powder snow.

This is the Lake Michigan satellite pic. from Friday PM.  There’s low clouds, high clouds, a couple of jet contrails and partly to mostly sunny skies over much of W. Michigan.  Reeds Lake water temp. down to 51.

Snowcover in the U.P. Sat. AM:  2″ Iron Mt. and Watersmeet, 1″ at Marquette and Champion.

TIME CHANGE was today (Nov. 5) at 2 am.  Fall back…we gain an hour.  Sunrise around 5:30 pm now.  Here’s a history of Daylight Saving Time.

Links: Here’s Grand Rapids radar and Northern Michigan radar, Milwaukee radar, Northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar, Detroit radar, Regional radar, the Updated GRR NWS Short Term Discussion. Here’s College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map, the National warning/watch/advisory map, and a surface weather map. Here’s the 84-Hour snow forecast from the NAM model and the 120-hour snow forecast from the GFS model. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Here’s recent storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph. Here’s Michigan ski conditions. Cool U.S. satellite loop.

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