Severe Risk Fri./Fri. Night

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a large section of the central U.S. for potential severe weather Friday OddsFriday night.  You can see the Risk Area extends into far SW Lower MI.  SPC says:  “The overall pattern continues to suggest a linear band of frontal convection, occurring within a pre-frontal environment featuring modest CAPE but very strong flow from the lower troposphere to upper levels. As such, damaging winds would be the main severe potential, with degree of risk at least partially modulated by the degree of CAPE and associated intensity of the convection. Given this potential, a 15% risk area is being introduced at this time, from the Midwest to the Arklatex vicinity. Partially due to timing differences between the models, a rather large area is being included in the risk, with fine-tuning of the lines left for later outlooks as evolution becomes more certain.”     Convection would be showers and thunderstorms.  At this time of year, frontal “thunderstorms” may have very little or even no lightning, but may still produce brief high winds.  “CAPE” is Convective Available Potential Energy.  Regardless of whether we see that line of convection or not, strong winds are likely late Friday into Saturday with the circulation around a strong low pressure center that will be moving through the Great Lakes.

From the Grand Rapids NWS:  “SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON… RAIN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY…IT WILL BECOME VERY WINDY SATURDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. VERY STRONG NW FLOW CAA WILL CAUSE RAIN SHOWERS TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES BY LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. IMPACTS FROM VERY STRONG WINDS IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.”

From the Gaylord NWS:  “ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO THE FRIDAY THROUGH THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME-FRAME AS AN IMPRESSIVE PACIFIC ORIGINATED MID-LEVEL WAVE CARVES OUT TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE CONUS WITH ATTENDANT CYCLOGENESIS UNDERWAY LEE OF THE ROCKIES. SAID LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT APPROACHES AND EVENTUALLY CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. NOTICEABLY GUSTY WINDS AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL COMMENCE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON (PERHAPS A BIT OF MIXED PRECIP EARLY?)…CONTINUING
INTO SATURDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM’S COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALLOWING FOR MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR TO SPILL INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN…BY SATURDAY NIGHT, ANY LINGERING SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN PRECIP. MAY CHANGE OVER TO WET SNOW WITH NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT PROCESS RAMPING UP AS WELL. THE COMBO OF RAIN, WIND AND SNOW MAKE THE UPCOMING WEEKEND ONE TO KEEP AN EYE ON MOVING FORWARD.”

From the Marquette NWS:  “CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT WE WILL SEE STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM, AND THEN VERY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM. BEHIND THE SYSTEM, STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND BRING BACK LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO DROP TO AROUND -10 TO -15C, STRONG LAKE-INDUCED CAPE THROUGH THE CONVECTIVE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THIS COUPLED WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING AMPLE LIFT AND CLOUD DEPTH THROUGH THE DGZ WILL FAVOR MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, VERY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND ACROSS THE KEWEENAW. THEREFORE, EXPECT BLOWING SNOW TO BECOME AN ISSUE. THESE STRONG AND GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO FAVOR BEACH EROSION NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKESHORE FLOODING.”

Also:  Odds of a White Thanksgiving.

 

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