Sunny, Mild Before the Arctic Blast

This pic. from the S. Haven Channel this AM shows a lone fisherman heading out into the cool waters of Lake Michigan.  The south mid-Lake Michigan buoy was “recovered” (brought back to land).  Again, thanks to the Coast Guard (I think that’s who brings the mid-lake buoys back to shore – someone can correct me if I’m wrong) for leaving the buoy in this late in the season.  Yesterday, the water temp. at the buoy was 45 – plenty warm enough for some decent lake effectt snow.

Near term forecast:  Partly to mostly sunny and dry today (Fri.) and over the weekend with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s.  The average high temp. for G.R. today is 40.  Rain showers will start to move in Sunday night (probably after midnight).  Rain showers and warm on Monday.  The models take the temperature as high as 60 Monday night before the first cold front arrives.  The GFS model has the temperature in G.R. at 59 at 1 am early Tuesday, then down to 39 by 7 am. By mid-morning Tues., the air is cold enough for snow (that’s not saying it will be snowing mid-AM – but it does show how fast the colder air moves in.  On the GFS, the air a mile above ground falls below +10F Tues. night and stays that cold for over a week!  Anytime the wind is off the lake, it’ll mean lake-effect or lake-enhanced snow…from light flurries to heavier snow bands.

Long-term forecast:   This is the 8-14 day forecast from the Climate Prediction Center for Dec. 8-14.  Pretty much all of the Eastern U.S. is expected to have cooler than average temperatures into the middle of the month.

This is the temperature forecast map from CPC for the whole month of December.  This map was issued yesterday.  CPC knows that the first five days (we’ll have a near-record high temp. Tuesday after midnight) are going to be quite warm and yet, they are quite confident the month will end up colder than average…so…they’re pretty sure the cold pattern is going to last for much of the month (and probably into January.  Good chance of a white Christmas this year.

This map is the GFS 16-day accumulated snowfall…just a rough guess…but heaviest will be downwind from the Great Lakes, inc. Lake M Michgan.  Easily one-two feet in the snow bands north of U.S. 10.

Also:  Meteorologist Joe Bastardi brings up similarity to 1989.  That was one of the coldest Christmas Eve/Days that we’ve ever had in W. Michigan…temperature around +5 to +10.

From Dr. Judah Cohen:  “North American cover hasn’t advanced in a month! But based on GFS forecasts that should change fairly dramatically over the next two weeks.”  U.S. snow cover at 9.2% this AM (Dec. 1),  It was 8.3% on Nov. 1.  Ice cover ahead of schedule on Hudson Bay and Lake Winnipeg.  Polar bears at Churchill (west side of Hudson Bay) headed out on the ice earlier this year.

Today (Dec. 1) is the start of meteorological winter, which is the months of Dec., Jan. and Feb.  Astronomical winter is from the Winter Solstice (Dec. 21) to the Vernal or Spring Equinox 3 months later on Mar. 21.  The coldest 3 months of the year in G.R. is from Dec. 5 to Mar. 5.

Also:  Grand Rapids gasoline price down 40 cents in the last 3 weeks!  Yippee for me on the road in Tennessee!  Gas price war in S. Haven MI has one station down to $2.05 this AM.  GasBiddy says prices will head up a little in 2018.

Beautiful pic. of nearly full moon setting over Lake Michigan this AM  Waterspout off the coast of Italy yesterday…with blue sky in the background.  2017 was the 7th most-active hurricane season in the Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico…but globally 2017 was a touch below average for tropical storms.  Check out this satellite picture – can you spot Grand Rapids?  Muskegon?   Holland?  Hurricane in the Arabian Sea.  Look at the snow in Washington StateBeautiful Virginia sunriseSnow in the mountains between Spain and France Fog in the valley, some sun on the mountaintops here in E. Tennessee this AM.  36.97″ of rain fell in Melbourne, Florida, during Sep, Oct and Nov, making it the wettest three-month fall period on record. The old record was 32.95″ set in 1999.  Plane crossing the moon.  The brightest full moon of 2017 is Dec. 3 (Sunday).  Video of San Remo waterspout.

Comments are closed.